Hartar Blog

I was once engaged to someone I shouldn’t have been. Let’s call her Carol. We were not kind to one another. She made a point of ruining my best days. I looked down on her. It wasn’t healthy, and I’m so very grateful we did not go through with getting married. I cheated on Carol twice, and confessed to her immediately. She made a point of dragging out the forgiveness, but it happened. I was grateful, and contrite, and tried to make things better. What I did not know, what I wouldn’t learn until much later, was that Carol had been cheating on me long before that, and with two close friends of mine, possibly more. Including my best friend (let’s call him George). Yup. She cheated on me for over two years with my best friend from high school. Fun. We broke our engagement before I knew about that. I was annoyed when Carol started dating George, whom her parents far preferred to me. I was even more annoyed when she attempted to sleep with me while with him. Then I found out abo...

Modern health crises: Recession and recovery  - Chang Ma, John Rogers, Sili Zhou (VoxEU.org) The EU response to the coronavirus crisis: How to get more bang for the buck  - Massimo Bordignon, Guido Tabellini (VoxEU.org) Pandemic Recession: L or V-Shaped?  - Victoria Gregory, Guido Menzio, David G. Wiczer (NBER WP) COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion  - Robert S. Pindyck (NBER WP) How to pay for the (pandemic) war  - Francesco Bianchi, Renato Faccini, Leonardo Melosi  (VoxEU.org) Challenges in Nowcasting GDP Growth  - FRB of Atlanta Emerging from the Great Lockdown in Asia and Europe  - Changyong Rhee and Poul M. Thomsen (IMF) Business cannot simply awake from this coma and carry on - Raghuram Rajan (FT) After the coronavirus pandemic  - Martin Wolf (FT) Fractured Global Value Chains post COVID-19: Can India gain its missed glory?  - Rajesh Chadha (Brookings) European investment plung...

Making the Best of a Post-Pandemic World - Dani Rodrik Banking regulation in the euro area: Germany is different Nicolas Véron (PIIE) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - Issue 16, CEPR COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock  - Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Steven J. Davis (SSRN) Risks of Growing Debt vs. Fiscal Stringency in the COVID-19 Crisis  - William G. Gale and Zachary Obstfeld (EconoFact) Federal Reserve System International Facilities - Bruce Mizrach and Christopher J. Neely (St Louis Fed) Bank resolution frameworks in systemic crises  - Thorsten Beck, Deyan Radev, Isabel Schnabel (VoxEU) New York Fed Announces Start of Certain Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility Purchases on May 12 - NY Federal Reserve COVID-19 crisis in the euro area: Recession or ‘double-peak’ expansion?  - Philippe Weil, Refet Gürkaynak, John Fernald, Evi Pappa, Antonella Trigari (VoxEU) The cost of the COVID-19 crisis: Lockdowns, macroeconomic ...

Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy? - Elenev, Landvoigt and van Nieuwerburgh (CEPR DP) Consumption in the time of Covid-19: Evidence from UK transaction data - Hacioglu, Känzig and Surico (CEPR DP) Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis - Baqaee and Farhi (CEPR DP) Navigating Deglobalization  - Mohamed A. El-Erian (PS) Long haul lockdown: Three scenarios for the impact of coronavirus on the UK economy  - Leslie, Hughes, McCurdy, Pacitti, Smith and Tomlinson (VoxEU) The economic impact of Covid-19 in Europe and the US  - Sophia Chen, Deniz Igan, Nicola Pierri, Andrea Presbitero (VoxEU) Working from home: Estimating the worldwide potential  - Berg, Bonnet and Soares (VoxEU) Political beliefs affect compliance with COVID-19 social distancing orders  - Painter and Qiu (VoxEU) Seize the opportunity of Covid-19 to restructure taxes - Martin Sandbu (FT) Growth in the shadow of COVID-19 de...

The case for permanent stimulus  - Paul Krugman (VoxEU) How COVID-19 is transforming the world economy  - Kilic and Marin (VoxEU) When Do Shelter-in-Place Orders Fight Covid-19 Best? Policy Heterogeneity Across States and Adoption Time - Dave, Friedson, Matsuzawa and Sabia (SSRN) Liquidity Provision during a Pandemic  - Kahn and Wagner (SSRN) The job numbers are horrible. But there’s more to this story - Betsey Stevenson (Washington Post)

Eurogroup Statement on the Pandemic Crisis Support  - Eurogroup The asymmetric impact of COVID-19 confinement measures on EU labour markets  - Torrejón Pérez, Fana, González-Vázquez and Fernández-Macías (VoxEU) The impact of COVID-19 on European household expectations  - Gene Ambrocio  (VoxEU) Coronavirus and commodity markets: Lessons from history - Peter Nagle (World Bank) Sector-Specific Shocks and the Expenditure Elasticity Channel During the COVID-19 Crisis  - Ana Danieli and Jane Olmstead-Rumsey (SSRN) Rebuilding better after Covid-19, part 2  - Martin Sandbu (FT Coronavirus recession deepens U.S. job losses in April especially among low-wage workers and women - Heather Boushey (Equitable Growth) Fiscal Monitor - April 2020 - IMF The coronavirus economy is exposing how easy it is to fall from the middle class into poverty - Washington Post A ray of light in global property - FT Lagarde urges eurozone to launch joint fiscal stimulus - FT...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers COVID-19 will raise inequality if past pandemics are a guide  - Furceri, Loungani, Ostry, and Pizzuto (VoxEU) The U.S. Labor Market During the Beginning of the Pandemic Recession  - Cajner et al COVID-19 crisis in the euro area: recession or “double-peak” expansion?  - CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee Figures of the week: The costs of financing Africa’s response to COVID-19  - Chris Heitzig (Brookings) Two months before the cliff - Catarina Midoes (Bruegel) The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models  - Bouabdallah and Ferrara Income Assistance for Low-Income Workers During the COVID-19 Crisis  - Levine and Schanzenbach (Econofact) Export controls: America’s other national security threat  - Chad P. Bown (PIIE) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers , Issue 15 - CEPR US States Need Federal Funding to Combat the Pandemic  - Laura ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers COVID-19 lockdowns have increased support for incumbents, trust in government, and satisfaction with democracy  - Blais, Bol, Giani and Loewen  (VoxEU) Germany’s Judges Declare War on the ECB  - Willem H Buiter The value of social distancing is not equally distributed  - Barnett-Howell and Mobarak (VoxEU) The Threat of Enfeebled Great Powers  - Arvind Subramanian (PS) Will COVID-19 fiscal recovery packages accelerate or retard progress on climate change?  - Hepburn, O’Callaghan, Stern, Stiglitz and Zenghelis  Fiscal Policies for the Recovery from COVID-19  - Gaspar,  Lam, and Raissi (IMF) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 14 - CEPR Global medical trade in the time of the coronavirus pandemic  - Kimberly A. Clausing (Equitable Growth) The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending  - Coibion, Gorodnichen...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Why the media in UK and US has moved beyond manufacturing consent, and why that has led to a war about reporting COVID-19   - Simon Wren-Lewis How to escape the trap of excessive debt - Martin Wolf (FT) Viral recessions: Lack of demand during the coronavirus crisis  - Veronica Guerrieri, Guido Lorenzoni, Ludwig Straub, Iván Werning (VoxEU) Real-time consumer spending responses to the COVID-19 crisis and government lockdown  - Dimitris K. Chronopoulos, Marcel Lukas, John O.S. Wilson (VoxEU) Southern European and emerging market firms are under severe distress  - Erica Bosio, Simeon Djankov (VoxEU) German court has set a bomb under the EU legal order - Martin Sandbu Real-time labour market estimates during the 2020 coronavirus outbreak  - Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin (VoxEU) Fiscal Policy During a Pandemic - Miguel Faria-e-Castro (SSRN) The impact of COVID-19 restrictions on individual mobility ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Towards a European Reconstruction Fund  - Luis Garicano China's weak social safety net will dampen its economic recover  - Nicholas R. Lardy (PIIE) and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) China’s overseas lending and the looming developing country debt crisis  - Sebastian Horn, Carmen Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch The Problem With MMT - Willem Buiter (PS) In the Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, We Must Go Big. Really, Really Big -  Susan Athey, Michael Kremer, Christopher Snyder and Alex Tabarrok Immigrant key workers in Europe: The COVID-19 response that comes from abroad  - Francesco Fasani Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - Issue 13 (CEPR) Central bankers should not be forward-looking in times of crisis  - Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji  COVID-19: The skewness of the shock  - Nicholas Bloom, Fatih Guvenen, Sergio Salgado China should export more medical gear to battle COVID-19  - Chad P. Bow...

The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates  - Kenneth Rogoff (PS) Supporting people and companies to deal with the COVID-19 virus  - OECD A trade bargain to secure supplies of medical goods  - Simon Evenett, L Alan Winters (VoxEU) Debt restructuring in the time of COVID-19: Private and official agreements  - Silvia Marchesi, Tania Masi (VoxEU) The case for a new Marshall Plan  - Alexia Delfino, Raffaella Sadun (VoxEU) You Can Lead a Horse to Water, But You Can’t Make It Drink  - Tim Duy Hunger amid plenty: How to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the world’s most vulnerable people - Mari Elka Pangestu Covid-19 and social distancing: Accounting for individual actions could change the way lockdowns are designed  - Miltos Makris (VoxEU) The ECB can ease Italian debt worries without risking inflation  - Carlo Cottarelli (FT) When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion  - Mariano Massimil...

Consumers' Mobility, Expenditure and Online-Offline Substitution Response to COVID-19: Evidence from French Transaction Data  - David Bounie, Youssouf Camara and John W. Galbraith (SSRN) It Matters that Most COVID Layoffs in March were Furloughs - Erica Groshen COVID-19 infection externalities: Herd immunity versus containment strategies  Zachary Bethune and Anton Korinek (VoxEU) After lockdowns, economic sunlight or a long hard slog? - Gavyn Davies Italy’s corporate reopening stirs fears over more deaths  - FT Will the Bank of England announce more QE?  - FT Two experts debate the long-term impact on inflation of the Covid-19 rescue packages - FT Countries That Kept a Lid on Coronavirus Look to Each Other to Revive Their Economies - WSJ Italians Prepare to Return to Work, If They Can Find Child-Care - WSJ US state pension system hit hard by coronavirus pandemic - FT

How to Avoid a W-Shaped Recession - Jeffrey Frankel (PS) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 12 - CEPR Leaders' speech and risky behaviour during a pandemic  - Nicolas Ajzenman, Tiago Cavalcanti, Daniel Da Mata (VoxEU) How did COVID-19 disrupt the market for U.S. Treasury debt?  - Jeffrey Cheng, David Wessel, and Joshua Younger (Brookings) Who is doing new research in the time of COVID-19? Not the female economists  - Noriko Amano-Patiño, Elisa Faraglia, Chryssi Giannitsarou, Zeina Hasna  (VoxEU) An Estimate of the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Australia  - Flavio Romano (SSRN) COVID-19 Caused 3 New Hires for Every 10 Layoffs  - David Altog et al (FRB of Atlanta) Mandated and targeted social isolation policies flatten the COVID19 curve and can help mitigate the associated employment losses  - Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci  (VoxEU) Life after lockdown: welcome to the empty-chair ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The monetary policy response to the pandemic emergency - Philip R. Lane (ECB) What’s the Fed doing in response to the COVID-19 crisis? What more could it do?  - Jeffrey Cheng, Dave Skidmore, and David Wessel (Brookings) Alternative scenarios for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity in the euro area  - ECB The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options  - CFM Surveys Economic policy incentives in the fight against pandemics  - Roberto Chang, Andres Velasco (VoxEU) Guidelines for cost-effective use of SURE - Almut Balleer, Britta Gehrke, Brigitte Hochmuth, Christian Merkl  (VoxEU) Lockdown contraction is not following usual economic script - Chris Giles (FT) The economic risk from COVID-19 is not where COVID-19 is  Ilan Noy, Nguyen Doan, Benno Ferrarini, Donghyun Park (VoxEU) To protect public health, preserve the global value chains  Anna Stellinger, Henrik Isakson, Ingrid Berglund (VoxEU)...