- The Case for Deeply Negative Interest Rates - Kenneth Rogoff (PS)
- Supporting people and companies to deal with the COVID-19 virus - OECD
- A trade bargain to secure supplies of medical goods - Simon Evenett, L Alan Winters (VoxEU)
- Debt restructuring in the time of COVID-19: Private and official agreements - Silvia Marchesi, Tania Masi (VoxEU)
- The case for a new Marshall Plan - Alexia Delfino, Raffaella Sadun (VoxEU)
- You Can Lead a Horse to Water, But You Can’t Make It Drink - Tim Duy
- Hunger amid plenty: How to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the world’s most vulnerable people - Mari Elka Pangestu
- Covid-19 and social distancing: Accounting for individual actions could change the way lockdowns are designed - Miltos Makris (VoxEU)
- The ECB can ease Italian debt worries without risking inflation - Carlo Cottarelli (FT)
- When the Markets Get COVID: COntagion, Viruses, and Information Diffusion - Mariano Massimiliano Croce, Paolo Farroni and Isabella Wolfskeil (CEPR DP)
- Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: Evidence from Real Time Surveys - Abigail Adams, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin and Christopher Rauh (CEPR DP)
- April Jobs Report Likely to Show Highest Unemployment Rate on Record - WSJ
- The Real Reason to Wear a Mask - The Atlantic
- Swedish bosses urge Europe not to waste opportunity from Covid-19 - FT
- Without child care, the economy won’t restart - Washington Post
- Banks to book more than $50bn against bad loans - FT
- A solution to the looming debt crisis in emerging markets - FT
- Virus-hit economies brace for second wave of job losses - FT
Gavyn Davies at the Financial Times reflects on the growing pessimism of Central Banks regarding the growth potential of advanced economies. In the US, the Euro area or the UK, central banks are reducing their estimates of the output gap. They now think about some of the recent output losses as permanent as opposed to cyclical. It output is not far from what we consider to be potential, there is less need for central banks to act and it is more likely that we will see an earlier normalization of monetary policy towards a neutral stance. Why did they change their mind? Is this evidence consistent with the standard economic models that we use to think about cyclical developments? Measuring potential output or the slack in the economy has always been challenging. One can rely on models that capture the factors that drive potential output (such as the capital stock or productivity or demographics) or one can look at more specific indicators of idle capacity, such as capacity utilization or...
Comments
Post a Comment