Hartar Blog

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers American Carnage - J Bradford DeLong (PS) The coronavirus recession is severe, and the damage to the U.S. economy will last years - Claudia Sahm (Equitable Growth) The EU recovery fund: An opportunity for change  - Massimo Motta, Martin Peitz  (VoxEU) Lessons from the Economic-Epidemiological Frontier  - Christopher Pissarides, Pietro Garibaldi and Espen R. Moen (PS) The effects of recessionary stimulus programmes: New evidence from the UK’s Enterprise Finance Guarantee scheme  - Juanita Gonzalez-Uribe, Su Wang, Simeon Djankov (VoxEU) Despite flattening the curve, South Korea faces economic challenges from COVID-19 as the United States - Soyoung Han and Euijin Jung (PIIE) A risk-centric perspective on the central banks’ Covid-19 policy response  - Ricardo Caballero, Alp Simsek  (VoxEU) Reading the COVID-19 Market  - Jim O-Neill (PS) New eBook: COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward W...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Evaluating the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity - OECD Europe's next budget is another twist in long road to solidarity Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) The impact of public sector lending to SMEs on employment and investment Áron Gereben, Marcin Wolski COVID-19 Could Bring Down the Trading System  - Chad Bown (Foreign Affairs) When a pandemic collides with a leveraged global economy: The perilous side of Main Street  - Mike Harmon, Victoria Ivashina (VoxEU) Maturity, seniority and size: Make sure the ESM’s pandemic crisis support is fit for purpose!  -Giancarlo Corsetti, Aitor Erce (VoxEU) It’s retail stores and restaurants, not farms and fisheries, that suffer most from social distancing  -Miklós Koren, Rita Peto (VoxEU) The next COVID-19 relief bill must include massive aid to states, especially the hardest-hit areas  - Mark Muro (Brookings) Good U.S. fiscal policy could have made us st...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The Deadly Urgency of Now - Gordon Brown (PS) The COVID-19 Balancing Act Michael J Boskin Brakes or bans: Protecting financial markets during a pandemic  - Laura Kodres (VoxEU) COVID-19 Economic Downturn: What do cyclical norms suggest? - Stephen G Cecchetti and Kermit L. Schoenholtz Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (Issue 10) - CEPR Scaling up the COVID-19 crisis response now will avoid higher costs later - Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Ayhan Kose (World Bank) The Evolving Impacts of COVID-19 on Small Businesses Since the CARES Act John Eric Humphries, Christopher Neilson and Gabriel Ulyssea (SSRN) How South Korea Stopped COVID-19 Early - Myoung-Hee Kim How the Tension Between Big Business and Antitrust Will Reshape Post-Covid America - Matt Stoller (ProMarket) Where should the marginal dollar go in U.S. fiscal policy - David Berger and Kyle Herkenhoff (Equitable Growth) Europe must act now to prepare the aftermat...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Still A Long Road Ahead  - Tim Duy Pandemic Lockdown: The Role of Government Commitment  - Christian Moser and Pierre Yared It’s time to expand unemployment protections  - Simeon Djankov and Dorina Georgieva (World Bank) COVID-19 epidemic: Italian workers exposed to risk and the lockdown - Teresa Barbieri, Gaetano Basso, Sergio Scicchitano (VoxEU) Tracking the COVID-19 crisis through the lens of 1.4 billion transactions  - Vasco Carvalho et al (VoxEU) The interaction between Covid-19 and an ageing society  - Andrew Scott, Jonathan David Old (VoxEU) COVID-19 and the poverty of IMF macroeconomics The General Theorist COVID-19 and Households’ Financial Distress Part 4 - St Louis Fed Which workers bear the burden of social distancing policies?  - Simon Mongey, Laura Pilossoph and Alex Weinberg How to think about the EU’s rescue fund - Wolfgang Munchau (FT) News Stocks Jump as Some Coronavirus Lockdo...

Health versus wealth: On the distributional effects of controlling a pandemic  - Jonathan Heathcote, Andrew Glover, Dirk Krueger, Víctor Ríos-Rull (VoxEU) The deflation threat from the virus will be long lasting - Gavyn Davies (FT) CBO’s Current Projections of GDP, Unemployment and Federal Deficit  - Congressional Budget Office Coronavirus Projected to Trigger Worst Economic Downturn Since 1940s - WSJ Cash in the time of corona  - Andreas Joseph, Christiane Kneer, Neeltje van Horen, Jumana Saleheen (VoxEU) Reweaving the social fabric after the crisis - Andrew Haldane (FT) German shops reopen but celebrations in Berlin muted - FT.com We need a better head start for the next pandemic  - Mehdi Shiva (VoxEU) Forecasting recoveries is difficult: Evidence from past recessions  - Zidong An, Prakash Loungani (VoxEU) Will central banks serve up fresh stimulus? - FT.com

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers High inflation is unlikely but not impossible in advanced economies  - Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) How Inequality Hurts the Economy and Complicates Policy Responses to the Pandemic  - Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi (ProMarket) Labor Demand in the Time of COVID-19  - Lisa B. Kahn, Fabian Lange and David Wiczer Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers  (Issue 9) - CEPR How will COVID-19 change our schools in the long run?  - Douglas N. Harris (Brookings) Funding the development and manufacturing of COVID-19 vaccines: The need for global collective action - Gavin Yamey, Kaci Kennedy and McDade (Brookings) Corona and Financial Stability 4.0: Implementing a European Pandemic Equity Fund - Arnoud Boot et al (VoxEU.org) Startups and employment following the COVID-19 pandemic: A calculator  - Petr Sedláček and Vincent Sterk (VoxEU.org) A New Capitalisn’t Episode: The Risk Of Reopening – a Read...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers A Post-Coronavirus Recovery in Asia—Extending a “Whatever it Takes” Lifeline to Small Businesses  - IMF Blogs The pandemic adds momentum to the deglobalization trend  - Douglas A. Irwin (PIIE) The coronavirus stimulus package: Quantifying the transfer multiplier  - Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke, Gernot Müller (VoxEU.org) National policies in a global pandemic - Thorsten Beck, Wolf Wagner (VoxEU.org) Hibernation: Keeping firms afloat during the COVID-19 crisis  - Tatiana Didier, Federico Huneeus, Mauricio Larrain, Sergio Schmukler (VoxEU.org) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers  (Issue 8) - CEPR How Will COVID-19 Affect the Spending of Financially Distressed Households? - Juan Sánchez (St. Louis Fed) Coronavirus: Testing and Freezing - A Survival Strategy for the Swiss Economy - Carlos Alós-Ferrer et al (Univ of Zurich Econ Dept) Improving funding conditions for the real econ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The Childcare Barriers to Putting America Back to Work - Jonathan Dingel, Christina Patterson and Joseph Vavra (ProMarket) Easing US bank regulations in the COVID-19 pandemic  - Simon Potter (PIIE) In China's economic shock, online retail sales are prospering  - Eva (Yiwen) Zhang and Yi Ji (PIIE ) EU debt as insurance against catastrophic events in the euro area: the key questions and some answers - Guntram Wolff (Bruegel) Facts, not words: the EU role in the de-confinement phase - Jean-Pisany Ferry (Bruegel) How the UK government should respond to the unequal local economic impacts of COVID-19  - Henry Overman (VoxEU.org) The value of testing  - Andrea Galeotti, Paolo Surico, Jakub Steiner  (VoxEU.org) COVID-19 susceptibility, women, and work  - Graziella Bertocchi  (VoxEU.org) The Short-term Liquidity Line: A New IMF Tool to Help in the Crisis  - Geoffrey Okamoto (IMF) Covid-19...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers How to implement a comprehensive debt standstill for COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries - Bolton et al (VoxEU.org) Why the European Central Bank can save the eurozone - Martin Wolf (FT) A perfect storm: COVID-19 in emerging economies  - Constantino Hevia and Pablo Andrés Neumeyer  (VoxEU.org) Don’t Waste the Pandemic Response  - Bertrand Badré (PS) Coping with COVID-19 and oil price collapse in the Gulf Cooperation Council - Rabah Arezki Rachel Yuting Fan and Ha Nguyen (World Bank) Coronavirus poses serious financial risks to US universities  - Dick Startz (Brookings) COVID-19 and gender gaps: Latest evidence and lessons from the UK  - Barbara Petrongolo, Claudia Hupkau  (VoxEU.org) COVID-19 and the Trust Deficit  - Michael Spence and David W Brady COVID-19, employment and women in OECD countries  - Monika Queisser, Willem Admea, Chris Clarke  (VoxEU.org)...

Three important questions to answer about global financial stabilization policies amid the coronavirus recession - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas We need to let economic data guide further economic policy responses to COVID-19  - Jay Shambaugh (Brookings) A policy framework for mitigating the economic impact of COVID-19  - Izvorski et at (Brookings) Urban Density Is Not an Enemy in the Coronavirus Fight: Evidence from China  - Wanli Fang and Sameh Wahba (World Bank) The coronavirus is not gender-blind, nor should we be - Grown and Sánchez-Páramo (World Bank) Now is not the time? - Simon Wren-Lewis Corona shock  (UK effects of COVID-19) -  Cook, Hollowood and Newell Misinformation During a Pandemic - Bursztyn, Rao, Roth and Yanagizawa-Drott (Becker Friedman Institute) The European response to the Covid-19 crisis: A pragmatic proposal to break the impass  - Roberto Perotti  (VoxEU.org) Jobs at risk: Policy responses to COVID-19 in...

Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations  - Benzell, Collis and Nicolaides (SSRN) A sustainable exit strategy - Mulheirn et al (Institute for Global Change) The underpinnings of Sweden’s permissive COVID regime  - Niels Karlson, Charlotta Stern, Daniel Klein (VoxEU.org) The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the equilibrium interest rate  - Gavin Goy, Jan Willem van den End (VoxEU.org) A Post-COVID-19 Digital Bretton Woods - Rohinton P. Medhora and Taylor Owen Innovation in the Pandemic Age - Zhu Min (PS) What we may learn from historical financial crises to understand and mitigate COVID-19 panic buying -  Kilian Rieder Argentina’s creditors must face up to the coronavirus challenge - Kevin P. Gallagher (FT) Covid-19 is bringing out protectionist instincts  - FT.com ECB pushes for eurozone bad bank to clean up soured loans  - FT.com World Bank pandemic bonds to pay $1...

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on gender equality  - Alon, Doepke, Olmstead-Rumsey and Tertilt  (VoxEU.org) Effective reproduction number in real time (US) - rt.live Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations - Benzell, Collis and Nicolaides The Subway Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City - Jeffrey E. Harris (NBER WP) The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook  - Kuchler, Russel and Stroebel (NBER WP) Covid19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters  Ludvigson, Ma and Ng (NBER WP) The corona spreads  - Esteves and Sussman (VoxEU.org) Economics Virtual Seminar Calendar - IDEAS The SDR is an idea whose time has come -  Gavyn Davies (FT) Africa in the news: African governments, multilaterals address COVID-19 emergency, debt relief - Gandhi and Golubski (Brookings) How to secure the...

COVID Inequality Project  - Adams-Prassl, Boneva, Golin, Rauh EU state aid policies in the time of COVID-19  - Massimo Motta, Martin Peitz (VoxEu.org) COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data - Brynjolfsson, Horton, Pzimek, Rock, Sharma and Yi Tu Ye.  COVID-19: How far will global merchandise trade fall?  - Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu (PIIE) Central bank lending logistics in the war on COVID-19: A primer  - Simon Potter (PIIE) China's economic growth prospects are worse than during the global financial crisis  - Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) Businesses Are in Uncharted Waters  - Brent Meyer and Nick Parker (FRB Atlanta) Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020 - Alicia Garcia Herrero Exiting the great lockdown? - Bruegel Dealing with the U.S. economic and public health effects of the coronavirus recession compassionately and with an eye on a strong recovery - Jason Furman (Equitab...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Negative interest rate policy in the post COVID-19 world  - Andrew Lilley, Kenneth Rogoff (VoxEU.org) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - Issue 6, CEPR Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers  - Issue 5, CEPR Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries - Chudik, Pesaran and Rebucci Ramping up ventilator production: Lessons from WWII  - Ethan Ilzetzki, Hugo Reichardt (VoxEU.org) Propagation of the economic impact of lockdowns through supply chains  - Hiroyasu Inoue, Yasuyuki Todo  (VoxEU.org) Ensuring state continuity during the coronavirus pandemic  - Ed Olowo-Okere (World Bank) Eurobonds (or coronabonds) would not be costly for Northern euro area countries  - Matthias Weber (LSE Blog) Economic Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Time of COVID-19 - Alejandro Werner (IMF) Latin Amer...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Responding to COVID-19 in the Developing World -  Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale insights) The COVID crisis and productivity growth - Filippo di Mauro, Chad Syverson (VoxEU.org) Work after COVID: A new regime for independent workers  - Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Luca Sartorio (VoxEU.org) Weak exports will not stall China's manufacturing recovery  - Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) COVID-19 Pandemic and the Asia-Pacific Region: Lowest Growth Since the 1960s  - Chang Yong Rhee (IMF) Cushioning the Poor from the COVID-19 Shock  - Rema N. Hanna and Benjamin A. Olken Toward a European Reconstruction Fund  -  Guy Verhofstadt and Luis Garicano The unemployment impacts of COVID-19: lessons from the Great Recession  - Stephanie Aaronson and Francisca Alba (Brookings) What central banks have done to help the economy survive Covid-19  - Florens Odendahl, Adrian Penalver, Urszula Sz...

The three ways fiscal policy can be used to fight COVID-19 and the coronavirus recession  - Olivier Blanchard Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (4th issue), CEPR A long-run view on the Coronabonds debate: The forgotten history of European Community debt - Sebastian Horn, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch (VoxUE.org) Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19  - Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Chad Jones National governments have gone big. The IMF and World Bank need to do the same - Gordon Brown and Lawrence Summers Economic Fallout from the COVID-19 Crisis on Developing Economies  - Megan Greene and Michael Klein COVID-19 and the privacy tradeoff  - Jean Pisani-Ferry (PIIE) COVID-19 Crisis Poses Threat to Financial Stability  - Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci (IMF) The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression - Gita Gopinath (IMF) Labour markets during the Covid-19 crisis: A prelimi...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The G20 not only should but can be meaningfully useful to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - Maurice Obstfeld and Adam S. Posen (PIIE) Suspend Emerging and Developing Economies’ Debt Payments  - Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (PS) Coronavirus: A resilient logistics sector can save lives and livelihoods - World Bank Blogs Doing more with less: How the IMF should respond to an emerging markets crisis  - Tobias Krahnke (VoxEU.org) What to do about the coming debt crisis in developing countries - Homi Kharas (Brookings) Combating COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea  - Michael J Ahn (Brookings) How would you distribute COVID-response funds to poor countries?  - World Bank Blogs The Europe makes a down payment on economic solidarity  - Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Remobilising the workforce for ‘World War COVID’: A two-imperatives approach  - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) How the G20 could pro...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The impact of COVID-19 on chronic health in the UK  - Katharina Janke, Kevin Lee, Carol Propper, Kalvinder Shields, Michael A Shields (VoxEU.org) Safety First: Expanding the Global Financial Safety Net in Response to COVID-19 - BU Global Development Policy Center Poverty and Economic Dislocation Reduces Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Protocols  - Austin L. Wright, Konstantin Sonin, Jesse Driscoll and Jarnickae Wilson COVID-induced economic uncertainty and its consequences  Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Stephen Terry (VoxEU.org) Using Quantitative Models to Guide Policy Amid COVID-19 Uncertainty - Lars Peter Hansen COVID, remobilisation and the ‘stringency possibility corridor’: Creating wealth while protecting health - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) How the next euro crisis could unfold  - Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Some Countries Face an Awful Question: Death by Coronavirus or by Hunger? - Ruchir Sharma (N...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers A National Plan to Enable Comprehensive COVID-19 Case Finding and Contact Tracing in the US - Center for Health Security (Johns Hopkins) How Will COVID-19 Affect the Health Care Economy? David Cutler (JAMA) Saving economic data from Covid-19  - Claudia Biancotti, Alfonso Rosolia, Fabrizio Venditti, Giovanni Veronese (VoxEU.org) Supporting people and companies to deal with COVID-19: Options for an immediate employment and social policy response  Stefano Scarpetta, Monika Queisser, Andrea Garnero, Sebastian Königs (VoxEU.org) COVID-19: Compassion is a click away - Carlo Maria Rossotto and Joulan Abdul Khalek (World Bank Blogs) Putting Swiss public debt to good use  - Cédric Tille (VoxEU.org) Suppression Exit Strategies: Options for Lifting Lockdown Measures in the UK - Ian Mulheirn Assessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on African Economies - World Bank News The pandemic and the radical change in wealth distribution ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Monetisation: Do not panic  - Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry (VoxEU.org) The coronavirus pandemic and US consumption  - John Muellbauer (VoxEU.org) The pandemic will plunge the world into recession; recoveries will be mixed - Karen Dynan (PIIE) The Fed Expands Emergency Lending by $2 Trillion  - Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) IMF's special drawing rights to the rescue  - Christopher G. Collins and Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Exchange rate policy in the COVID-19 pandemic  Christopher G. Collins and Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) COVID-19, teleworking, and productivity  - Masayuki Morikawa (VoxEU.org) How to Avoid a Mass of Business Bankruptcies: Two Policy Proposals  - Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick (ProMarket) A COVID-19 Marshall Plan for Europe - Philippe Legrain (PS) Europe’s New Defining Moment  - Xavier Vives (PS) The perils of more debt - Maria Demertzi...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers COVID-19: Trump’s curbs on exports of medical gear put Americans and others at risk  - Chad Bown (PIIE) Special Series on COVID-19  - IMF Fiscal Affairs Department Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - 3rd issue -- CEPR Lessons from the Ebola crisis on dealing with Covid-19  - VoxEU.org The Human-Capital Costs of the Crisis - Barry Eichengreen (PS) Pandemic Socialism  - Willem Buiter (PS) COVID, remobilisation and the ‘stringency possibility corridor’ - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) Enhancing central bank cooperation in the COVID-19 pandemic  - Collins, Potter and Truman (PIIE) The COVID-19 Default Time Bomb  - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Chang-Tai Hsieh (PS) Africa Needs Debt Relief to Fight COVID-19  - Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala , Brahima Coulibaly (PS) How large is the coronavirus macro shock?  - Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin and Philipp Hildebrand Social distancing unlikely to hold up in Africa without a...

How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy - St Louis Fed How development policy financing can support COVID-19 response and preserve human capital - World Bank Blogs Thoughts from a total lockdown in Argentina - Federico Sturzenegger (VoxEU.org) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (2nd issue) - CEPR COVID-19: The self-employed are hardest hit and least supported - Bruegel Africa’s COVID-19 Budget Crunch - Project Syndicate How sick might banks get? - The Economist French central banker floats printing money to hand to companies - FT.com The G20 should do more to harness the IMF and World Bank - Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Designing the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic - Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) The World After Covid-19: Inequality Within Rich Countries Will Increase, Globalization Will Reverse, Politics Will Remain Turbulent - Branko Milanovic (ProMarket) Trade and the COVID-19 crisis in developing countries - VoxEU.org Pandemics and asymm...

Sectoral effects of social distancing - Barrot, Grassi and Sauvagnat Preparedness can pay off quickly: Disaster financing and COVID-19  - World Bank Blogs The East-West Divide in COVID-19 Control - Jeffrey D. Sachs (PS) Why testing a representative sample of the population must be done now  - VoxEU.org The Real Economic Fallout of COVID-19 - Dennis Snower The large and unequal impact of COVID-19 on workers - VoxEU.org Trump’s ineptness may prolong the recession - The Washington Post Who still thinks austerity was a good idea? - Simon Wren-Lewis Economists are united in support of the coronavirus lockdown - Martin Sandbu (FT.com) We must focus attention on our next steps - Martin Wolf (FT.com) How and When to Restart the Economy: a Webinar with Nobel Laureate Paul Romer - Pro Market What it will take to save the economy from COVID-19 - Olivier Blanchard The G20 should expand trade to help developing countries overcome COVID-19 - PIIE The Greater Trade Collapse of ...