Hartar Blog

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on gender equality  - Alon, Doepke, Olmstead-Rumsey and Tertilt  (VoxEU.org) Effective reproduction number in real time (US) - rt.live Rationing Social Contact During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmission Risk and Social Benefits of US Locations - Benzell, Collis and Nicolaides The Subway Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City - Jeffrey E. Harris (NBER WP) The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook  - Kuchler, Russel and Stroebel (NBER WP) Covid19 and the Macroeconomic Effects of Costly Disasters  Ludvigson, Ma and Ng (NBER WP) The corona spreads  - Esteves and Sussman (VoxEU.org) Economics Virtual Seminar Calendar - IDEAS The SDR is an idea whose time has come -  Gavyn Davies (FT) Africa in the news: African governments, multilaterals address COVID-19 emergency, debt relief - Gandhi and Golubski (Brookings) How to secure the...

COVID Inequality Project  - Adams-Prassl, Boneva, Golin, Rauh EU state aid policies in the time of COVID-19  - Massimo Motta, Martin Peitz (VoxEu.org) COVID-19 and Remote Work: An Early Look at US Data - Brynjolfsson, Horton, Pzimek, Rock, Sharma and Yi Tu Ye.  COVID-19: How far will global merchandise trade fall?  - Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu (PIIE) Central bank lending logistics in the war on COVID-19: A primer  - Simon Potter (PIIE) China's economic growth prospects are worse than during the global financial crisis  - Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) Businesses Are in Uncharted Waters  - Brent Meyer and Nick Parker (FRB Atlanta) Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020 - Alicia Garcia Herrero Exiting the great lockdown? - Bruegel Dealing with the U.S. economic and public health effects of the coronavirus recession compassionately and with an eye on a strong recovery - Jason Furman (Equitab...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Negative interest rate policy in the post COVID-19 world  - Andrew Lilley, Kenneth Rogoff (VoxEU.org) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - Issue 6, CEPR Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers  - Issue 5, CEPR Voluntary and Mandatory Social Distancing: Evidence on COVID-19 Exposure Rates from Chinese Provinces and Selected Countries - Chudik, Pesaran and Rebucci Ramping up ventilator production: Lessons from WWII  - Ethan Ilzetzki, Hugo Reichardt (VoxEU.org) Propagation of the economic impact of lockdowns through supply chains  - Hiroyasu Inoue, Yasuyuki Todo  (VoxEU.org) Ensuring state continuity during the coronavirus pandemic  - Ed Olowo-Okere (World Bank) Eurobonds (or coronabonds) would not be costly for Northern euro area countries  - Matthias Weber (LSE Blog) Economic Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean in the Time of COVID-19 - Alejandro Werner (IMF) Latin Amer...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Responding to COVID-19 in the Developing World -  Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak (Yale insights) The COVID crisis and productivity growth - Filippo di Mauro, Chad Syverson (VoxEU.org) Work after COVID: A new regime for independent workers  - Eduardo Levy Yeyati, Luca Sartorio (VoxEU.org) Weak exports will not stall China's manufacturing recovery  - Nicholas R. Lardy and Tianlei Huang (PIIE) COVID-19 Pandemic and the Asia-Pacific Region: Lowest Growth Since the 1960s  - Chang Yong Rhee (IMF) Cushioning the Poor from the COVID-19 Shock  - Rema N. Hanna and Benjamin A. Olken Toward a European Reconstruction Fund  -  Guy Verhofstadt and Luis Garicano The unemployment impacts of COVID-19: lessons from the Great Recession  - Stephanie Aaronson and Francisca Alba (Brookings) What central banks have done to help the economy survive Covid-19  - Florens Odendahl, Adrian Penalver, Urszula Sz...

The three ways fiscal policy can be used to fight COVID-19 and the coronavirus recession  - Olivier Blanchard Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (4th issue), CEPR A long-run view on the Coronabonds debate: The forgotten history of European Community debt - Sebastian Horn, Josefin Meyer, Christoph Trebesch (VoxUE.org) Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19  - Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Chad Jones National governments have gone big. The IMF and World Bank need to do the same - Gordon Brown and Lawrence Summers Economic Fallout from the COVID-19 Crisis on Developing Economies  - Megan Greene and Michael Klein COVID-19 and the privacy tradeoff  - Jean Pisani-Ferry (PIIE) COVID-19 Crisis Poses Threat to Financial Stability  - Tobias Adrian and Fabio Natalucci (IMF) The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression - Gita Gopinath (IMF) Labour markets during the Covid-19 crisis: A prelimi...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The G20 not only should but can be meaningfully useful to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic - Maurice Obstfeld and Adam S. Posen (PIIE) Suspend Emerging and Developing Economies’ Debt Payments  - Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff (PS) Coronavirus: A resilient logistics sector can save lives and livelihoods - World Bank Blogs Doing more with less: How the IMF should respond to an emerging markets crisis  - Tobias Krahnke (VoxEU.org) What to do about the coming debt crisis in developing countries - Homi Kharas (Brookings) Combating COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea  - Michael J Ahn (Brookings) How would you distribute COVID-response funds to poor countries?  - World Bank Blogs The Europe makes a down payment on economic solidarity  - Jacob Funk Kirkegaard (PIIE) Remobilising the workforce for ‘World War COVID’: A two-imperatives approach  - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) How the G20 could pro...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers The impact of COVID-19 on chronic health in the UK  - Katharina Janke, Kevin Lee, Carol Propper, Kalvinder Shields, Michael A Shields (VoxEU.org) Safety First: Expanding the Global Financial Safety Net in Response to COVID-19 - BU Global Development Policy Center Poverty and Economic Dislocation Reduces Compliance with COVID-19 Shelter-in-Place Protocols  - Austin L. Wright, Konstantin Sonin, Jesse Driscoll and Jarnickae Wilson COVID-induced economic uncertainty and its consequences  Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven Davis, Stephen Terry (VoxEU.org) Using Quantitative Models to Guide Policy Amid COVID-19 Uncertainty - Lars Peter Hansen COVID, remobilisation and the ‘stringency possibility corridor’: Creating wealth while protecting health - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) How the next euro crisis could unfold  - Wolfgang Munchau (FT) Some Countries Face an Awful Question: Death by Coronavirus or by Hunger? - Ruchir Sharma (N...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers A National Plan to Enable Comprehensive COVID-19 Case Finding and Contact Tracing in the US - Center for Health Security (Johns Hopkins) How Will COVID-19 Affect the Health Care Economy? David Cutler (JAMA) Saving economic data from Covid-19  - Claudia Biancotti, Alfonso Rosolia, Fabrizio Venditti, Giovanni Veronese (VoxEU.org) Supporting people and companies to deal with COVID-19: Options for an immediate employment and social policy response  Stefano Scarpetta, Monika Queisser, Andrea Garnero, Sebastian Königs (VoxEU.org) COVID-19: Compassion is a click away - Carlo Maria Rossotto and Joulan Abdul Khalek (World Bank Blogs) Putting Swiss public debt to good use  - Cédric Tille (VoxEU.org) Suppression Exit Strategies: Options for Lifting Lockdown Measures in the UK - Ian Mulheirn Assessing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on African Economies - World Bank News The pandemic and the radical change in wealth distribution ...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers Monetisation: Do not panic  - Olivier Blanchard and Jean Pisani-Ferry (VoxEU.org) The coronavirus pandemic and US consumption  - John Muellbauer (VoxEU.org) The pandemic will plunge the world into recession; recoveries will be mixed - Karen Dynan (PIIE) The Fed Expands Emergency Lending by $2 Trillion  - Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) IMF's special drawing rights to the rescue  - Christopher G. Collins and Edwin M. Truman (PIIE) Exchange rate policy in the COVID-19 pandemic  Christopher G. Collins and Joseph E. Gagnon (PIIE) COVID-19, teleworking, and productivity  - Masayuki Morikawa (VoxEU.org) How to Avoid a Mass of Business Bankruptcies: Two Policy Proposals  - Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, Adi Sunderam and Eric Zwick (ProMarket) A COVID-19 Marshall Plan for Europe - Philippe Legrain (PS) Europe’s New Defining Moment  - Xavier Vives (PS) The perils of more debt - Maria Demertzi...

Blogs, Opinions and Academic papers COVID-19: Trump’s curbs on exports of medical gear put Americans and others at risk  - Chad Bown (PIIE) Special Series on COVID-19  - IMF Fiscal Affairs Department Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers - 3rd issue -- CEPR Lessons from the Ebola crisis on dealing with Covid-19  - VoxEU.org The Human-Capital Costs of the Crisis - Barry Eichengreen (PS) Pandemic Socialism  - Willem Buiter (PS) COVID, remobilisation and the ‘stringency possibility corridor’ - Richard Baldwin (VoxEU.org) Enhancing central bank cooperation in the COVID-19 pandemic  - Collins, Potter and Truman (PIIE) The COVID-19 Default Time Bomb  - Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Chang-Tai Hsieh (PS) Africa Needs Debt Relief to Fight COVID-19  - Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala , Brahima Coulibaly (PS) How large is the coronavirus macro shock?  - Elga Bartsch, Jean Boivin and Philipp Hildebrand Social distancing unlikely to hold up in Africa without a...

How the Impact of Social Distancing Ripples through the Economy - St Louis Fed How development policy financing can support COVID-19 response and preserve human capital - World Bank Blogs Thoughts from a total lockdown in Argentina - Federico Sturzenegger (VoxEU.org) Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers (2nd issue) - CEPR COVID-19: The self-employed are hardest hit and least supported - Bruegel Africa’s COVID-19 Budget Crunch - Project Syndicate How sick might banks get? - The Economist French central banker floats printing money to hand to companies - FT.com The G20 should do more to harness the IMF and World Bank - Simeon Djankov (PIIE) Designing the fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic - Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) The World After Covid-19: Inequality Within Rich Countries Will Increase, Globalization Will Reverse, Politics Will Remain Turbulent - Branko Milanovic (ProMarket) Trade and the COVID-19 crisis in developing countries - VoxEU.org Pandemics and asymm...

Sectoral effects of social distancing - Barrot, Grassi and Sauvagnat Preparedness can pay off quickly: Disaster financing and COVID-19  - World Bank Blogs The East-West Divide in COVID-19 Control - Jeffrey D. Sachs (PS) Why testing a representative sample of the population must be done now  - VoxEU.org The Real Economic Fallout of COVID-19 - Dennis Snower The large and unequal impact of COVID-19 on workers - VoxEU.org Trump’s ineptness may prolong the recession - The Washington Post Who still thinks austerity was a good idea? - Simon Wren-Lewis Economists are united in support of the coronavirus lockdown - Martin Sandbu (FT.com) We must focus attention on our next steps - Martin Wolf (FT.com) How and When to Restart the Economy: a Webinar with Nobel Laureate Paul Romer - Pro Market What it will take to save the economy from COVID-19 - Olivier Blanchard The G20 should expand trade to help developing countries overcome COVID-19 - PIIE The Greater Trade Collapse of ...

Will COVID-19 Remake the World?  - Dani Rodrik (PS) Navigating the Pandemic Trilemma  - Harold James (PS) Letter to governments of the G20 nations  - VoxEU.org Mapping the COVID-19 Recession - Ken Rogoff (PS) Will We Flunk Pandemic Economics?  - Paul Krugman (NYTimes) Beating the Coronavirus Is the Best Stimulus  - Frydman and Phelps (WSJ) A green recovery  - Dirk Schoenmaker (Bruegel) When Will the Pandemic Cure Be Worse Than the Disease?  - Peter Singer and Michael Plant (PS) At War With a Virus  - Richard N Haass (PS) The Case for Mandatory Face Masks  - Shang-Jin Wei (PS) Rescuing the labour market in times of COVID-19: Don’t forget new hires!  - VoxEU.org Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It.   NYTimes.com The United States Needs a ‘Smart Quarantine’ - NYTimes.com Fighting COVID-19 in Europe and Central Asia: Saving Lives versus Protecting Jobs? - World Bank Blogs To fight the COVID pandemic, policyma...

Optimal Mitigation Policies in a Pandemic  - Jones, Philippon and Venkateswaran  COVID-19 economic crisis: Europe needs more than one instrument  - VoxEU.org Crashed to Corona 3: the Fed beyond Swap Lines  - Adam Tooze The EU must be forged in this crisis or it will die - Zingales (FT.com) Compliance with COVID-19 Social-Distancing Measures in Italy: The Role of Expectations and Duration Briscese et al (NBER WP) Prepare for large wage cuts if you are younger and work in a small firm - VoxEU.org The ESM can finance the COVID fight now  - VoxEU.org Internationalizing the Crisis - Joseph Stiglitz (PS) The European Commission’s SURE initiative and euro area unemployment re-insurance - VoxEU.org The economics of wage compensation and corona loans: Why and how the state should bear most of the economic cost of the COVID lockdown - VoxEU.org Do not count on a fast global economy bounceback  - Gavyn Davies (FT) How many people really die from Covid-19? Lessons ...

Human Mobility Restrictions and the Spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China - Fang, Wang and Yang (NBER WP) COVID-19 Economic Stimulus Index  - Elgin, Basbug and Yalaman\ Fewer deaths in Veneto offer clues for fight against coronavirus - FT.com Whack-a-mole: the long run virus - John Cochrane COVID-19: OMT is second-best, but still welcome  - VoxEU.org Sharing the fiscal burden of the crisis: A Pandemic Solidarity Instrument for the EU  - VoxEU.org EU solidarity in exceptional times: Corona transfers instead of Coronabonds  - VoxEU.org Covid Economics: Social Distancing and the Relevant Benefits of Cost-Benefit Analysis - Lever (ProMarket) Global Uncertainty Related to Coronavirus at Record High - Ahir, Bloom and Furceri (IMF Blog) Africa in the News: Impact of COVID-19 on African Economies  - Brookings Swiss lead way with crisis loans to small businesses - FT.com Hong Kong Faces Delays in Giving Cash Away With Virus Hitting Econ...

Daily list of links Data needs for shutdown policy - James Stock Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages? - Guerrieri, Lorenzoni, Straub and Werning ESM loans or Coronabonds: A legal analysis from the German perspective - VoxEU.org Making the Fight against the Coronavirus Pandemic Sustainable  - Group of German Scientists Preparing for post-pandemic financial reckoning  - Patrick Honahan Why We Can Be Optimistic About the Long-Term Impact of the “Covid Economy”  - Wojciech Kopczuk (Pro Market) Will inflation make a comeback after the crisis ends?  VoxEU.org The responses of consumption and prices in Japan to the COVID-19 crisis and the Tohoku earthquake - VoxEU.org How do countries differ in their response to the coronavirus economic crisis?  Ricardo Reis Remittances in times of the coronavirus – keep them flowing - World Bank Blogs COVID-19: Forecasting with Slow and Fast Data  - St Louis Fed The G...

Daily list of Links: The Case for Universal Cloth Mask Adoption - Abaluck et al. How do we value a statistical life? - Tim Harford (FT) COVID-19 Response White Papers  - Center for Ethics Harvard Univ. Notes on the Coronacoma - Paul Krugman (NYTimes) The Value of Opacity in a Banking Crisis - Anderson and Copeland (NY Fed) The asset markets and the coronavirus pandemic - VoxEU.org Fed's bond-buying world records in responding to COVID-19 drew on planning, training, and infrastructure - PIIE Europe should seize oil price windfall to fund its pandemic response - PIIE Coronavirus and financial stability - VoxEU.org The dollar and international capital flows in the COVID-19 crisis - VoxEU.org Some micro/macro insights on the economics of coronavirus - VoxEU.org Why testing offers a way to end the lockdowns - FT.com Latin America faces both the pandemic and its economic consequences - World Bank Blogs The Danger of No Antitrust Enforcement: How a Merger Led to the US Ventila...

Daily list of links: Not One Emerging Market Financial Crisis, but Many - Brad Setser R < 1 as an Economic Constraint - Eric Budish Supply chain contagion waves - Baldwin and Freeman (VoxEU.org) Tax relief in a time of crisis - World Bank Blogs Yes, medical gear depends on global supply chains. Here's how to keep them moving - PIIE Shore up global transport to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic  - World Bank Blogs The EU needs an independent public health authority to fight pandemics such as the COVID-19 crises - VoxEU.org Some micro/macro insights on the economics of coronavirus - VoxEU.org Coronanomics 101 - Barry Eichengreen (PS) Reviving the potency of monetary policy with recession insurance bonds - Coronado and Potter (PIIE) Economic Policies for the COVID-19 War  - IMF Blog Economic Implications of COVID-19 - Becker Friedman Institute Responding to crisis with digital payments for social protection: Short-term measures with long-term benefits - World Bank Blogs ...

Daily list of links "Whatever it takes." Getting into the specifics of fiscal policy to fight COVID-19  - Olivier Blanchard (PIIE) The importance of an expanded U.S. Unemployment Insurance system during the coronavirus recession  - Arindrajit Dube The Priority for the Social-Distancing Period - Michael Spence (PS) Following the Science or a National Scandal - Simon Wren-Lewis Will the Economic Strategy Work?  - Jean Pisani-Ferry (PS) Why are some stock markets in Asia less affected by coronavirus?  - Bruegel How long can we expect temporary layoffs to remain temporary?  Brookings The Two Pandemics  - Robert Shiller (PS) COVID-19: What Do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth? - St Louis Fed Blog Building effective short-time work schemes for the COVID-19 crisis - VoxEU.org COVID- 19, inequality, and gig economy workers - VoxEU.org Coping with a dual shock: COVID-19 and oil prices - VoxEU.org 'Immunity passports' could speed up return to work after...

Daily links on COVID-related content The West’s COVID-19 Learning Curve  - Daniel Gros (PS) Capitalism’s Triple Crisis  - Mariana Mazzucato (PS) How COVID-19 is laying bare inequality  - Bruegel The COVID-19 Solidarity Test  - Kemal Dervis (PS) South Asia shows new spirit of collaboration to fight COVID-19 pandemic  - World Bank Blogs Is COVID-19 triggering a new emerging-market crisis?  - Bruegel The Coronavirus Is the Biggest Emerging Markets Crisis Ever  - Adam Tooze (Foreign Policy) Emerging market central banks embark on radical stimulus policies  - FT.com Monitoring Real Activity in Real Time: The Weekly Economic Index - NY Fed Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker - Oxford University How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home? - Dingel and Neiman COVID, Fed swaps and the IMF as lender of last resort  - Levy Yeyati (VoxEU.org) The Federal Reserve can do more for small businesses  - Brookings A timeline of central bank response...

Daily links to COVID-Economics related content OECD Policy Tracker  - OECD Where does all the heterogeneity come from?  - Tyler Cowen The Stimulus Package Is Too Expensive and Poorly Targeted  - Seru and Zingales How Coronavirus Is Shaking Up the Moral Universe  - Jon Authers Manufacturers Seek U.S. Help in Deciding Where to Ship Scarce Medical Goods  - WSJ.com QE is not helicopter money – and yet it is useful  - VoxEU.org Trump is missing the big picture on the economy  - Larry Summers Creating an EU ‘Corona Panel’: Standardised European sample tests to uncover the true spread of the coronavirus  - Daniel Gros VoxEu.org How widespread is coronavirus in New York? We need to know  - VoxEU.org EU backs bank rule delay to spur crisis lending  - FT.com Go-it-alone eurozone ‘coronabonds’ are worth the risk  - Wolfgang Munchau Does coronavirus herald capital controls? - FT.com The Road Back to Normal: More, Better Testing - WSJ.com The ...

Daily links about the economic consequences of COVID including some proposals for policies COVID-19: China's exports of medical supplies provide a ray of hope - Chad Bown (PIIE) COVID-19 crisis: Fiscal policy should lead and the Bank of England should follow for the duration of the crisis - VoxEU.org How business fared in its coronavirus quarter - FT.com What Will Be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios  - Atkeson (NBER WP) The Case for Lockdown: in Italy’s Lombardy, It Can Reduce Covid-19 Potential Fatalities from 160,000 to 25,000  - Carlo Favero Corona bonds – great idea but complicated in reality - Lorenzo Bini Smaghi (VoxEU) Weekend reading: Supporting and protecting workers during the coronavirus recession edition - Equitable Growth Britain needs to be crystal clear about belated virus strategy - Martin Wolf (FT) Lessons from Italy’s Response to Coronavirus - HBR.org Testing People and Targeted Isolation: How to Save More Li...