The "Great Moderation" was a term used to describe the reduction in business cycle volatility observed in several advanced economies. It started in the mid-1980s and it coincided with the period of time where inflation had successfully brought down to a low level (and remained low and stable since then). There was a debate about the causes of the Great Moderation. Some put central banks at the center of the phenomenon while others thought good luck was a significant part of the explanation for these benign years. The crisis that started at the end of 2007 represented for some the end of this period and a validation of theories that had seen good luck as the main reason for it. The deep and protracted recession that followed 2007 questioned the idea that business cycles had become less volatile. But looking at the volatility from today's perspective, 2018, the "Great Moderation" might still be relevant, at least for the US economy. I calculate below a (previous) ...